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1.The Limitations and Caveats of Earnings Growth Rate[Original Blog]

Earnings growth rate is a popular metric to measure the profitability and growth potential of a company. It shows how much the earnings per share (EPS) of a company have increased or decreased over a certain period of time, usually a year or a quarter. However, like any other financial metric, earnings growth rate has its limitations and caveats that investors should be aware of. In this section, we will discuss some of the factors that can affect the accuracy and reliability of earnings growth rate, and how to use it with caution and context. Some of the limitations and caveats of earnings growth rate are:

1. Earnings growth rate can be manipulated by accounting practices. Companies can use different accounting methods and policies to report their earnings, such as revenue recognition, depreciation, amortization, inventory valuation, etc. These methods can have a significant impact on the earnings figure, and thus the earnings growth rate. For example, a company can boost its earnings growth rate by using aggressive revenue recognition, which means recording revenue before it is actually earned or collected. This can inflate the current earnings, but reduce the future earnings, creating an unrealistic growth rate. Similarly, a company can lower its earnings growth rate by using conservative accounting practices, such as writing off assets, increasing provisions, or deferring revenue. This can understate the current earnings, but increase the future earnings, creating a low growth rate. Therefore, investors should always look at the quality and consistency of the earnings, and not just the growth rate.

2. Earnings growth rate can be distorted by one-time or non-recurring items. Sometimes, a company may have extraordinary or unusual events that affect its earnings, such as asset sales, restructuring charges, litigation settlements, tax benefits, etc. These events can either increase or decrease the earnings, and thus the earnings growth rate, but they are not indicative of the normal or ongoing operations of the company. For example, a company may sell a division or a subsidiary, and record a large gain or loss from the sale. This can significantly affect the earnings growth rate for that period, but it does not reflect the core business performance of the company. Similarly, a company may incur a large expense or receive a large income from a legal settlement, which can also skew the earnings growth rate. Therefore, investors should always adjust the earnings for these one-time or non-recurring items, and calculate the earnings growth rate based on the adjusted earnings.

3. Earnings growth rate can be influenced by external factors. The earnings of a company can also be affected by factors that are beyond its control, such as economic conditions, industry trends, market competition, consumer preferences, regulatory changes, etc. These factors can have a positive or negative impact on the earnings, and thus the earnings growth rate, but they are not related to the intrinsic value or competitive advantage of the company. For example, a company may experience a high earnings growth rate due to a favorable economic environment, such as low interest rates, high consumer spending, or strong demand. However, this may not last long, and the earnings growth rate may decline when the economic conditions change. Similarly, a company may face a low earnings growth rate due to a challenging industry environment, such as high competition, low margins, or regulatory hurdles. However, this may not reflect the true potential or innovation of the company. Therefore, investors should always consider the external factors that can affect the earnings, and compare the earnings growth rate with the industry peers and the market averages.


2.How to calculate the earnings growth rate and the earnings multiplier using the EGM formula?[Original Blog]

One of the most important aspects of the EGM is the EGM formula, which allows us to estimate the value of a company based on its expected future earnings. The EGM formula consists of two components: the earnings growth rate and the earnings multiplier. These two components reflect the two main drivers of a company's value: how fast it can grow its earnings and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings. In this segment, we will explain how to calculate the earnings growth rate and the earnings multiplier using the EGM formula, and provide some examples to illustrate the concepts.

- The earnings growth rate is the percentage change in a company's earnings per share (EPS) over a given period of time, usually one year. It measures how fast a company can increase its profitability and generate more income for its shareholders. The earnings growth rate can be calculated using the following formula:

$$\text{Earnings growth rate} = rac{ ext{EPS}_{t+1} - ext{EPS}_t}{ ext{EPS}_t} \times 100\%$$

Where $\text{EPS}_t$ is the earnings per share at time $t$ and $\text{EPS}_{t+1}$ is the earnings per share at time $t+1$.

- For example, suppose a company has an EPS of $2.00 in 2023 and an EPS of $2.40 in 2024. The earnings growth rate for this company from 2023 to 2024 is:

$$\text{Earnings growth rate} = \frac{2.40 - 2.00}{2.00} \times 100\% = 20\%$$

This means that the company's earnings per share increased by 20% from 2023 to 2024.

- The earnings multiplier is the ratio of a company's market price per share (MPS) to its earnings per share (EPS). It measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's earnings. The earnings multiplier can be calculated using the following formula:

$$\text{Earnings multiplier} = rac{ ext{MPS}}{ ext{EPS}}$$

Where MPS is the market price per share and EPS is the earnings per share.

- For example, suppose a company has an MPS of $60 and an EPS of $2. The earnings multiplier for this company is:

$$\text{Earnings multiplier} = \frac{60}{2} = 30$$

This means that investors are willing to pay $30 for each dollar of the company's earnings.

- The EGM formula combines the earnings growth rate and the earnings multiplier to estimate the value of a company. The EGM formula is:

$$\text{Value} = \text{EPS} \times \text{Earnings multiplier} \times (1 + \text{Earnings growth rate})$$

Where Value is the estimated value of the company, eps is the earnings per share, Earnings multiplier is the ratio of MPS to EPS, and Earnings growth rate is the percentage change in EPS.

- For example, suppose a company has an EPS of $2, an earnings multiplier of 30, and an earnings growth rate of 20%. The value of this company according to the EGM formula is:

$$\text{Value} = 2 \times 30 \times (1 + 0.2) = 72$$

This means that the company is worth $72 per share according to the EGM formula.

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